plcombs, Viewpoint Gloucester Massachusetts

Booom and Apple is Still Rising!

2011-04-20T14:50:00.000-07:00

As veryone knows by now, Apple blew past estimates and has jumped from it's close of $342.41 to $356.75..( as of this minute). An 11% recovery from Monday's open...

According to Reuters:

Gross margins in the fiscal second quarter came to 41.4 percent, above Wall Street's average forecast of 39.03 percent. Apple reported a net profit of $5.99 billion, or $6.40 a share, while revenue surged 83 percent to $24.67 billion. That surpassed expectations for $5.37 in earnings and $23.4 billion of revenue.

Clearly Apple is a long way from running out of gas, new products, improved manufacturing and supply line infastructure coupled with a weaker dollar will keep this company moving ahead with no lack of appetite for all things Apple, with no "Malus" towards the Droid.

Lets see how Google responds to the news.....

IBM Beat Estimates and Drops....go figure and Apple up After Hours

2011-04-19T15:34:00.000-07:00

IBM made it's earnings report this afternoon and as expected did very well and beat estimates. Income rose 10% with revenue of 2.86 billion surpassing last year's same quarter of 2.6 billion with a revenue increase of 8%. These numbers translate into $2.41 per share over the Street Estimate of $2.29, along with this they've increased their annual earnings estimate to $13.15 per share up from a flat $13.00. Importantly hardware sales rose 16%, something which may indicate corporations are increasing spending on upgrades for equipment and may bode well for smaller users who rely on Dell and other makers for the mom and pop businesses...Dell was up after hours by 1%.

I like IBM, they have a huge cash position and have shown over and over they can and do change with the market. After the dust settles over the next few days, maybe sooner, I'll wager the stock levels off and regains it's footing heading to the $200 range by Christmas....

Most amusingly, the stock fell back after hours from it's close of $165.40 to $161.38 or down 2.38%. It would appear some folks feel it's had it's run for now and are moving on. In a few months, $165.00 might look like a real bargain.

As for Apple, as I mentioned yesterday it would reach $338 to the mid $340's by Wed night, it continued its rise from the $332 range up to $337.86 at the close and added another $1.74 after hours reaching $339.60. I closed an Iron Condor I opened a week ago with a mid price of $336.00, for a very nice credit and and can now watch the earnings without concern for blowing through the puts. Yes you can make money in a week or so on a Condor with a little wind at your back. Buying was steady as can be all day, intraday was even and buying accelerated hard after 2:00...the only question remains is, will their earnings meet expectations or crush them. My feeling is, no matter what they say, a certain percentage of holders will never be satisfied enough (more than usual) and APPLE may have a VERY wild ride in both directions following the news. (another reason I closed the Condor) By next week it will be back on track I suspect and heading higher until data surfaces ow "le Droid" is doing...

Has anyone noticed the Triple Top on Apple? Its odd, it almost looks like a triple bottom as well, with APPLE the later is entirely possible...As for the re-balancing, most of it is likely done, but do not be surprised if we see a good rise and then a sell off into volume following earnings.

on other stuff Warren Buffett is being sued by a shareholder over the Sokol mess along with Sokol.

A funny new vidoe has been posted on http://omidmalekan.com/ on inflation....if you haven't seen the site, its worth a bit of your time. very clever...

Monday Monday, can't trust that day.....

2011-04-18T13:44:00.000-07:00

When the market opened this morning after the S&P downgraded the outlook for the US Sovereign Debt it looked like a blowout to the downside for the day. That 9:30 straight down red line was an ugly thing...along with it went most of the market. Interestingly after a while when it rammed through 200 points to the downside it abated. Apparently the market had a enough time to digest the underlying meaning, realized the political implications for the comment and buyers began picking up some relative bargains, depending on your perspective.

By noon things had settled down despite a rise in the VIX which stayed above it's recent norms for the balance of the day.

CAT was an early victim of the dive as was IBM both loosing a few dollars and like so many others found their feet and began a recovery in the mid afternoon. IBM almost recovered all of the drop to within .16% of the open...not bad at all, that's the power of a good balance sheet. Bidu did about the same thing...

As for Apple, it slipped hard on the morning news along with much of the Nasdaq whacking into the $320 area, by late morning signs of life returned and began its days march back up like Hanniball going through the Alps...after 2:00 the volume picked up, with the help no doubt of some short covering, finishing up for the day 1.34% or $4.39 to the $331.85 level...which it fell through Friday last like a rock.

As an aside President Obama's Tax return was made public today...he and Citigroups Chairman mr. Pandit made almost the exact same amount of money. Seems fair enough, they are both running nearly bankrupt organizations, but slowly turning the corner after being saved by Federal money...

As for Apple, my feeling was on Friday it would turn the corner upward today which it did logically and is now finding a spot to land for earnings on the 20th. Numerous companies have upgraded their earning's estimates lately...I suspect it will finish on Wednesday around $338 to $346...and then react accordingly after the news..best guess 20 points one way or another. For the last couple weeks it's been sweeping the walkways on the downside. Its all hinges on the earnings and from what product they did the best with and the worst...

BofA Settles and AGO Jumps!, Google day, Apple Slips and so it goes...

2011-04-15T14:44:00.000-07:00

Despite a quiet VIX the DOW up 56 points, S&P 500 pushing up a bit it was an interesting day.

Bank of America settled the claim with AGO three years after the Bermudian based insurer sued over inflated loan values for over a billion dollars. Assured Guaranty was up 24% to $17.60 and BofA continued it downward slide loosing another 2.35% to settle at the close at $12.82. Its about time, they paid up for their scummy behavior and perhaps we'll see similar deals coming from others on Wall Street...we might even get to see Blankfein doing the "perp walk". down the road.

Blomberg reported that the SEC is looking into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac..for "enforcement action". It is interesting how Fannie and Freddie have slipped off the "screen" for most in the aftermath of the crisis, painting them selves as "victims"...

As for Google..we all know what happened and it dropped $47.81 or 8.26 and is still sliding in after hours. As odd as it may sound, or maybe not Google might make a good candidate for a wide May Iron Condor: something like : sell the $505 Puts, buy the $500's and sell the $575 Calls and buy the $580's...the Delta's are not quite neutral at +1.65 and a credit of $1.62. The break evens are well below the late last Sept. price and getting over the upper break evens seem remote. (not recommending anyone do it, just a thought "for educational purposes") For me, I'll wait until Apple announces next week and Google has a chance to find it's feet.

As I mentioned a few days ago, it seemed Apple might bounce off the $328 area, I'm not a psychic..I just read the charts...and thats how it looked to me..Today it hit $328...went right through it and bounced of $327..close enough.

It was sad seeing all those Arpil Calls expire worthless today...talk about Premiums!!! I think on Monday, things will start to turn higher for Apple, $328 just seems too cheap...the 20th of April looms larger every day.

Have a nice weekend...Boston Marathon on Monday...! no..I am not running it, just an observer.

Google Earnings April 13th, 2011, and other stuff

2011-04-14T15:50:00.000-07:00

Google had a good quarter, made money and seem to be suffering from little more than expansion pains. I must admit the recent news about paying 50 million for "retention" of some employees to be a bit much, but that's their business...

Google was off in after hours trading by 5.4%, which may on further thinking by investors seem like a bargain and they'll buy back in in the next couples weeks after Apple announces theirs next week. It may happen sooner..but I doubt it.

Apple is still slipping a bit as expected, you might see a nice a move up on starting on Monday. Many investors will, over the weekend, ponder the meaning of Googles earnings and think about those stories of IPads selling on Ebay for 50% above list, those long lines in Apple stores, the endless rumors about supply chain shortages. All conjuring visions of piles of back orders and unsatisfied demand.

Then theirs the recent story of Co Founder Steve Wozniak saying recently he would consider seriously coming back for a more active roll at the company.

All fodder for the fires...

The VIX is nice and quiet, the market was more or less even during the day and didn't seem too rattled by the jump in jobless claims or President Obama's tax talk.

It seems the markets are drifting in an almost surreal quiet period while earnings trickle out which might give indication on the next move. Barring another Middle East mess, earthquake or Debt eruption from the EU, China manages to control its inflation and keeps buying raw materials things might continue their upward move. It all comes into play..even if its used only as an excuse to move prices...given the right twist.

The market looks like it's stalling a bit, the S&P is stuck in the low 1300 range and the DOW Composite Average a couple hundred above 4000...both staying pretty much inside one deviation up or down for the last month, with the exception of the drop caused by Libya and the aftermath of the Japanese Earthquake.

So, we wait...

Apple Computer, a week before Earnings

2011-04-13T09:55:00.000-07:00

Apple has continued its slightly off but more or less sideways dance the last few days. It brushed the low 330's and seems to have support there, albeit weak. It may slip to $328 at some point if you're a chartist... I don't get hung up too much on a dollar here or there when you're looking at $300 stocks.

A few days ago it looked like it was going to do pretty much what it's been doing price wise. The open interest with the May ITM Calls has remained steady, up a bit...Not suprisingly the June ITM calls have been climbing. The April ITM calls look to be pretty much all heading for the trash heap...

How much of this is resulting from the NASDAQ rebalancing, Oil worries, Japanese Nuclear troubles or just pre earnings reluctance? Who knows... the market has been perched on the edge of some resistance lines and much sentiment exists for a correction of some kind. Its probably all of the above for the last month or two.

After looking at Apple the last few weeks, thinking about an Option Spread to place....its a tough one. So I opted to place one that covers the reaction to Apple's earnings...good and bad with enough time for things to settle out just in case. I like HUGE Iron Condors a couple months out...when volatility has been up a bit..

SOLD 20 Apple June $300 Puts

BOUGHT 20 Apple June $295 Puts

SOLD 20 Apple June $375 Calls

Bought 20 Apple June $380 Calls

MAX Profit $3,320

MAX Loss $6,680

The probabilities are good, despite being a few months out it seems to be a good situation and plenty of time to make any adjustments. The Mays didn't have the risk-reward situation I like(d). Being further out you get more time and larger credits, with Apple that is a good thing. I think the distance to expiration will be helped by its IV.

Just my two cents worth....in the next few days Apple might move up a bit..maybe, just maybe back into the mid $340's, but I wouldn't wager it happening before the April ITM's Calls are gone..next Monday and Tuesday etc..should be a wild ride..

Obama needs a Helmet, Chris Mathews, Rachel Maddow and Keith Olberman are seeking a Bus

2010-06-15T19:47:00.000-07:00

President Obama needs a helmet, MSNBC is getting ready to "Throw him under the bus.." we wouldn't want him to bang his head.

Following Mr. Obama's speech this evening MSNBC's lineup squirmed angrily and picked apart the speech line by line. Beating Barrack like a seal pup in Spring over his nonsensical, specific free speech. From Mathews saying.."where does he get the authority to do ANY of this without spending 7 years in court", to Olberman whining and visably angry about any lack of specifics on anything. Of course their are no specifics, you are listening to Obama. They were all left saying "HOW????"

They all have forgotten Mr. Obama got elected singing hope and platitudes...neither of which make a good plan to clean up the Gulf mess or for doing much else. Hey it didn't work when he was a Community Activist , why would it work on the world stage?..

Interestingly, the big benefactors of this whole thing will be The Tea Party and reasonably so..

Obama Speaks... Vague has a New Meaning

2010-06-15T19:00:00.000-07:00

Ok..tonight "he took the gloves off", hes not fooling around. No siree, Obama means business, watch out, step back.

It would appear leadership is an ethereal thing....

During THE BIG SPEECH he said he's going to MAKE Bp set up a fund, the number I heard today was 35 Billion Dollars. That's more than 100 % of BP's working capital, so BP will have to sell assets?. He is going appoint someone outside of BP to handle the claims, if BP says no Obama can do little, but they may agree at least for now.. So there....like I said...stand back....Obama is ripping and he has a plan, he said so. He will order BP to "lay out whatever funds are required in a fund"...that number I think is ZERO, but I might be wrong.

For weeks he has promised to "FIGHT with everything we've got"....the progress has been amazing..Hasn't it? Oh and their new estimate is heading towards 60,000 barrels a day by August.

He then talked about Alternative Fuels/Energy...and all the Green nonsense, capping carbon emissions, alternative energy development. After all, if you can't lead in one direction try another, change the topic and conversation.."So far the arsonist has eluded police, however we're developing a new waterproof lighter", so we can lose more jobs and spend more money on something that has virtually no future payoff. This President is as lost as a 3 year in the middle of Yosemite.

The big question left behind by this chat is: How are you going to do any of this....devoid of specifics as with all things Obama. He could have done as well by not speaking.

Hand out the shampoo now, when this White House pulls there heads out of their butts...they are going to need to wash them. Just as they leave town...

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Bummed Out In China & Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visits the White House..

2010-06-10T21:29:00.000-07:00

Today's UN resolution for new sanctions against the belligerent little turd and his pathetic excuse for a once great country will likely have no effect..but alas its always better than nothing. Iran's Nuclear Enrichment program is heading towards completion, geting closer every day..while the feckless Mr Obama and the UN talk and wring their hands...and will be powerless to effect a change. Sanctions never really work..

No matter, we all know that when the time comes, Israel will do the right thing and run a few air strikes and hopefully get rid of Iran's Nuclear program. Its what Israel does better than anyone....we all need to say Thank You....

What was most interesting was, Mr. Ahmadinejad was in China today visiting the World Expo...and the sad fellow learned not even China refrained from supporting the vote again him. China is entering the 21st Century, have new connections around the world and they are also dealing with North Korea. (Sanctions have never worked there either) Interstingly..China had been Iran's biggest outside oil developement investor, things have changed it would seem.
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Interestingly Mr. Obama did manage to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and head of the famous Terrorist Group Hamas right in the White House. Mr Abbas complained Israel "isn't serious about peace"...this from the man who's organizational charter calls for the total destruction of Israel. I thought Obama was going to kiss him, maybe next time. Interestingly Mr. Obama would not visit with Israel's Prime Minister last time he was in town...nor with the previous English Prime Minister Brown. I guess we're valuing Hamas more than Great Britain and Israel these days.

BP Spill Costly, Embarrassing, Messy...But Small Potatoes

2010-06-07T23:15:00.000-07:00

The BP mess is terrible, awful, an environmental disaster like no other etc. etc. OK? Everyone nods, "Kum ba Yah". That said, we at this point all need a reality check.

A pipe broke following an apparent methane explosion 5,000 feet under water killing eleven good men working on the rig. The force from a deep water methane explosion pretty much wipes out everything, even "blow-out valves" and "dead man switches" which were on the rig. The potential effectiveness of the much touted and missing (not required) "Acoustic Switch" would likely have been ineffective as well, this was a massive blast.

The financial cost, all said and done, will be peanuts when compared to the Wall Street banking debacle. In truth its a minor but forever famous event and when looked at relatively to the financial collapse of the last several years its a blip. Sure its colorful and a News reporters dream...but alas its more of a visual buffet than anything else.

Who's fault is it? Its all our fault if their is such a thing. For the last 35 years we've all talked a big game about alternative fuels..Carter, Regan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II and Obama. We've had house majorities on each side of the aisle, neither of whom has done anything and nothing is in the works yet. So before you point fingers and scream "Criminals" at BP...look in the mirror and say "Hypocrites" then shut up and pay the man for your gas and oil heat, jet fuels and anything made from plastic that you use for starters. Even the "Global Warming" angle cannot get things changed....

Sure the Gulf is in a bad way, people have lost jobs, many birds, fish and plants have, are and will be dieing. So far the only real loss is the loss of human lives..which seems almost a sidebar, just pathetic. We are hearing and seeing more about oily coated birds than the dead workers or the impact it's had on their families. Of course dead workers isn't a very sexy news story..however evil oil companies acting irresponsibly leading to graphic pollution and killing animals makes for great news..

Yes its sad...but all fixable and for what seems like a nominal amount of money in today's world. The clean-up for the Gulf spill will reach tens of billions, maybe fifty billion dollars. Compared to the world banking crisis and it's fall out, the Gulf spill is a minor financial event, a ripple. Additionally, when this is over and before 500 more deep water rigs are put in place, we will know a lot more about properly building them and making them safe.

So why is it getting such enormous attention? Well disaster are so amazing to watch...Katrina was a ratings booster as was Mt St. Helen's not to mention the Haitian Earthquake (remember that) and many more. A running disaster has fresh hourly news, surprises, personalities, people saying stupid things, people yelling, politicians being themselves (largely stupid and self serving) its all so perfect.

So, just remember the 50 Billion dollars this thing might cost is nothing compared to the trillions lost here and around the world through even more lax governmental controls and corrupt bankers and dishonest borrowers. Just last week the EU pledged 900 Billion alone for just Greece....thats 20 times the cost of this spill....For Greece..

WHO Oversold the H1 N1 Pandemic New Study Reports

2010-06-04T22:33:00.000-07:00

The Washington Post and US News is reporting the WHO likely oversold the H1N1 Pandemic and has severely damaged the organizations credibility...WOW..I know to most of you this is no suprise..it wasn't for me. While , yes the folks who caught the disease got knocked for a loop..it wasn't the "Typhoid Fever" it was pitched as.

One early article on the virus had even said.."Although these statistics are staggering, H1N1 has the capabilities in place to evolve into most potent pandemic that humanity has ever witnessed.' Now bear in mind the Bubonic Plague killed 10,0000 per week ....ultimately wiping out half of Europe.. Talk about overselling....

Result : in 2009 less than 12,000 caught and died from this disease in the USA. In 1958 the flu killed 90,000 in the USA...with a population nearly half of what it is today. The H1N1 so far s one of the least dangerous flu's in history, the average fatality rate for the annual flu is around 35,000 per year.

The WHO...is now being accused of doing little more than stimulate the drug industry's bottom line, I tend to agree. Better luck next year...in a manner of speaking.

http://health.usnews.com/health-news/managing-your-healthcare/infectious-diseases/articles/2010/06/04/a-year-after-its-emergence-h1n1-swine-flu-lingers.html

The BP Leak

2010-06-03T22:15:00.000-07:00

Everyone seems to be putting forward ideas on how to stop the leaking pipe 5,000 feet down in the Gulf. Some are crazy....some seem thoughtful. One idea is to Nuke the pipe..So, in keeping with the spirit of the thing I'll toss my temporary solution into the ring....heh...EVERYONE else is..

Mine is simple...Now that they have sawed off the damaged pipe and they have a nice clean opening. I was told the actual opening is under 10 inches.

Well it seems to me, if you have lets say a 10" opening why can't they insert another pipe measuring 9.90" in diameter into the leaking one with a massive pump sucking whatever comes near it up and away? Stick it in as far as it will go and pump. (sounds sexual, but then again we're all getting screwed with no payoff)

I have heard numerous reports that BP has the wagons drawn in a circle and they are talking to no one with any ideas..These guys all will find good Government jobs after they liquidate BP.

Gaza and their Regent Israel, Some Kids will Never Grow Up

2010-06-03T19:47:00.000-07:00

This past week we saw what happens when terrorist backed groups promising humanitarian aide through a relatively friendly country and then use peaceniks to draw the worlds pity and condemnation once they succeed in provoking a violent attack.

Reminds me of the story about the Scorpion and the Turtle.

Perhaps I haven't paying attention to the news...but Israel is, for lack of a better term, still the Gaza strips Regent? The Gaza strip is a territory under the control of Hamas, but not independent of Israel.

Consequently, the idea that Israel has not the right ot examine ANYTHING entering the Gaza strip is silly. Even sillier when you consider the leaders of Gaza i.e. Abbass and his group Hamas all recognized as a terrorist group by the EU, United States and most of the civilised world. Hamas has sworn to "wipe Israel from the face of the Earth" and have done nothing to discourage this belief for decades.

Now they (Hamas) are getting sophisticated....but only transparently so.
This week Hamas in lockstep with Turkey and the Egyptian Brotherhood (Turkey is also afraid of Hamas and Militant branches of Islam) loaded some ships with what they announced was Humanitarian Aide. Further they announced the ships were bringing them into a port in Gaza and would not permit inspections by Israel.? Gee nothing provocative there..

Given the Gaza's current leadership under Abbas/Hamas and their open aggression towards Israel, coupled with their track record of smuggling weapons with which to attack Israel, inspecting the ships is the minimal requirement. Israel had simply asked the ships to stop in Ashdod before entering Gaza.. The Captains all said no, the result was..9 dead....and finger pointing by Terrorists, college students and third world countries led by cowards. The Captains should have known the whole thing was a set up. They knew the history of Hamas, the problems with them and Israel are hardly a secret...so why would they risk so much? They wouldn't is the answer...unless they are dumb as a Scud Missle or the real objective was film footage..and outrage...and provoking condemnation of Israel.

I do think....these ships were never meant to deliver their shipments...or at least not deliver them until using them as bait and cause an international mess. They succeeded and the western press is wolfing it down.

Interestingly...the passengers who Hamas and Turkey managed to dupe onto the ships have yet to understand how they have been used....like pawns. Perhaps Turkey was used too or were simply too afraid to refuse involvement, only they know that.

and so it goes......Israel will weather this fine...and Hamas will keep on harming women, children and fools for political gain and bastardizing their faith..

Cue the music from "The Sting"

Obama - Gulf Mess- His Disconnect from Reality

2010-06-02T22:36:00.000-07:00

Like all true and good politicians Mr. Obama has seized on BP's fiasco as a catalyst for a NEW ENERGY Policy. Its perfect!...they have a mess, Obama is clueless, his indecision and desire to always be the pleaser precludes direct action or decisive thought. He can now do what he does best....introduce something which will cost us more money, while making some of us feel better...

So! Problem solved, he can put forward a warm and fuzzy new plank of justification for alternative energy platform. Lets all hold hands...He can give lots of speeches..and most importantly...he can now change the subject.

After all..one failed drilling rig out of thousands working in 5,000+ feet of water instead of 300 feet of water because enviromentalists don't want to look at the rigs near land is a Clarion Call...and of course for good measure "Bush's fault". Deep sea methane explosions have always been Bush's fault, he was just that kind of guy.

Rather than focus on all this dirty nasty oil, which will likely cost a lot of Democratic seats in the fall . Obama has opted now to patch together some quick, ill concieved initiatives he can push before the electoral massacres start later this year.

Chris Mathews..might have gotten another tingle up his leg, its the only tingle he likely gets these days...so don't deny him.. Even he is dissappointed in Le Barrack.

Whats interesting....we have more Natural Gas...than the Saudis have oil reserves. Its clean, plentiful and available and very underutilized. ....Wind power is a Science Joke...Solar is years away. Ohh I forgot, Natural Gas it isn't FUZZY...so he will talk about tax breaks and give aways for energy resources that will never amount to more a blip.

The Markets...June 2, 2010

2010-06-02T22:08:00.000-07:00

Asia: Following an up day in the US....the Asian markets had the biggest one day rally of the year. Of course a strong rally often happens when panic subsides...and traders say.."gee that's CHEEP now". Expect some profit taking if the upticks show the slightest weakness.

Currency, Jobs & News: The Euro finished the day at $1.2289 (take the family to Europe..)...Jobless Claims this week are expected to be more or less range bound close to last weeks numbers. GDP and Durable Goods Orders are divergent...one up and one down...seems odd..but that's the consensus. The good news is despite the litany of world wide messes, the US and world markets are , for now, bouncing back a bit.

Warren Buffet today: Warren held court (in a nice way) in New York today answering questions about the Wall Street debacle and failure of Banks..and surprisingly the Government's role in allowing the over leveraging of real estate. Seeing as he at one point owned Freddie Mac...his thoughts are pretty important. While Warren is always interesting, he was especially poingnat today, he reminded us the other big player in the mess was the Government and by default Barney "shut up" Frank who gave the red light for the insanity surrounding Credit Default Swaps..and Derivatives....After all the Frank theory was...EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A HOUSE. He is an idiot and a bully...I have no idea where folks got the idea Barney was smart. He is loud and rude....not smart. Lets not forget this is the guy who's gay boyfriend was running a Gay Whore house out of Frank's little DC apartment and he claimed under oath he knew nothing...Thank you Warren for the memory thread...

BP - Dead Man Walking: Like Chinese water torture...BP may die the death of a Hundred Trillion Drips...Squared Times Ten. Unless they can get the Gulf well capped off...BP sliding stock value combined with the cost of the clean-up and sure as sun rise lawsuits..may kill this badly run enterprise. Just wait until the Boycott Folks...get on them.

The Markets This Week...

2010-06-01T21:25:00.000-07:00

After a few weeks..of being beaten down while welfare nation Greece went cup in hand to the EU, North Korea's lunatic in residence rattled his degenerate brain and China made moves to quell the overheating real estate market..the US Markets are starting to find their feet again (perhaps).

Despite Pimco's scramble for Australian AAA Bonds, we may be heading into a Summer Rally. The Euro is weak, Spain is a mess but American Tech Makers, Real Estate and Manufacturing are showing some power. we might even be buyers of goods from Europe...Imagine that!

If the price of oil starts to rise evenly and steadily, Interest rates nudge up a little..and gold slides back to $1,100 it may bode well for a 3 to 6 month period at least.

Gore's Are Getting Divorce...Yes the Gores...

2010-06-01T21:07:00.000-07:00

Al and Tipper...: What the heck happened? All through the Clinton-Gore White House years..bookmakers throughout the world..wagered Bill and Hillery would divorce 11 seconds after 12 the day his second term ended. The Clinton's have gone on to flourish. Meanwhile Mr. Global panic and his Bible thumping wife are calling it "a day" Mr. and Mrs. Perfect marriage...are "Fini". The next shoe to drop will be of course...who was sleeping with whom. For my money..Al is the man most likely to be spreading his carbon footprint around away from the marital bed.

Arizona Law results in Artist Boycott.

2010-06-01T20:52:00.000-07:00

Border Jumping: Burnt potato stoner and convicted tax dodger Willie Nelson along with Carlos Santana and artist of mediocrity Harry Gamboa Jr., with others, have merged to decry the border law in Arizona. All of them and many more including Mexican Pop Band Mana, feel everyone should get to stay here regardless of status period just as has been done for decades.

Despite overwhelming popular support by most Americans the addle minded Nelson and his crew feel the laws should be ignored citing the romance of open borders and Mexico's long tradition of entering the US illegally. Its heart rendering to read. Of course its rubbish...

Couple this with the silly comments of Mexico's President, who has standing shoot to kill orders on his southern border for illegal immigrants, about Arizona's unfair "Migration" law is almost laughable. The testicle free Mr. Obama applauded the Mexican leader for his efforts. Mr. Obama has since decided to send "up to" 1200 basically unarmed National Gaurdsmen to the border to "monitor" the situation.

BP, Israel, Arizona and the land of Lincoln

2010-05-31T19:30:00.000-07:00

BP and Mr.Obama: It would now appear President Obama and President George W. Bush are both going to share the sting of what happens when you screw by neglect the folks along the Gulf of Mexico. This odd disconnect from a huge and growing set of problems has become President Obama's M.O. on many topics and the BP spill is bringing it to sharp focus.

Like George W., Mr. Obama was late to the metaphorical table of hydrocarbons...even later than Mr. Bush was for Katrina. Obama has made an even briefer show of support by wandering around on a little relatively clean section of beach and then left town. He is now busily trying to get the hapless Mr. Holder to search out possible legal "malfeasance". Luckily for BP and unfortunately for us, Mr. Holder couldn't find his ass in a well lit room full of mirrors. The BP saga continues following the failure of "top kill" predicted by T. "Boone" Pickens. Mr. Obama should be listening to that man.

Israel and the Flotilla: Israel is going to take a lot of flak for the shootings on the on the relief flotilla, however when its all said done..I suspect when looked at under the light of day the shooting will be deemed justified. While technically the boat was in International Waters, the Captains of all 8 ships were asked to divert to another port for a search, all refused. A very dumb, but typical response. Given Hamas history in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere Israel would be irresponsible not to demand the ship be inspected. We already know numerous supporters of the flotilla are well connected to several Al Qaeda groups including Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. In the end like so many things connected with these Muslim terrorists folks died and they, like the true cowards they are, blamed someone else.

Arizona Law: Mr. Obama it would appear has yet to grow a set, or at least get his own back from his wife Michelle. The White House Announced today that the President "doesn't have the time" to meet Governor Brewer over the immigration law enacted recently. Add her to the growing list of people he cannot meet, including the last Prime Minister of England, Mr. Brown. While almost 60+% of Americans approve of the Arizona law and other states are enacting similar laws, the White House is treading water and resisting taking any steps to stem the flow of illegal immigration.

Land of Lincoln: In 1858 Mr. Lincoln said the following,
“I will say, then, that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races—that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of making voters or jurors of Negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this, that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I, as much as any other man, am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race.”

While Lincoln later changed his mind on voting rights and some constitutional protections, his wish to end slavery had more to do with preserving the Union than any humanitarian urges. Mr. Obama made a poor choice in going there on this Memorial Day. Apparently "Mother Nature" agreed..his speech like so many things Obama was a wash out.

So What DID CAuse The Collapse in Simple Terms?

2009-03-14T10:08:00.000-07:00

OK...Economics 101

In 1999 the Glass Steagall act was repealed, the act was put in place during the 1930's. It enacted to limit Banks from becoming speculators in risky ventures and investments. Congress had repeatedly seen bills for it's repeal since the 1970's, viewed by many as a relic from the New Deal.

Finally in 1999, Clintons last year in office, it was repealed in an attempt to keep economic growth in tact when the Dot.com bubble was imploding. It was repealed largely to preserve Mr. Clinton's projected budget surplus. Clinton never actually had any surplus, it was always a projection most of which was Social Security revenue. 911 resulting however convolutedly in the War in Iraq and Afghanistan which created new deficits. Clinton broke the dealock and go the law repealed. Sanford Weil from Citigroup go the pen Clinton used as a cherished keepsake for the President.

Regardless, Glass Streagal was repealed and opened the gates for Wall Street to sell more creative mortgages to investors around the world. Consequently Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac jumped on the bandwagon at the urging of Barney Frank and others to reduce lending requirements and amortization standards. Thus making it possible for unqualified people to get loans and allowing for absurd levels of refinancing.

As late as 2006 Mr. Frank Chairman of Federal Banking Committee said all was well and their was no need for concern with the lending industry and that Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac were "sound". They both are now owned by the US Government. At the same time Wall Street Bankers were echoing Mr. Franks opinions on the matter. They were all either wrong or lying.

It was a house of cards that had been in the making for 30 years. The Bubble of the 80's caused by Technology left a void when it fell apart and never fully recovered. It was replaced by Real Estate loans and virtually non-existent credit requirements all encouraged by Washington, from BOTH sides of the aisle.

Blaming this debacle on Regan, or Bush or the Republicans alone or even in the Majority is absurd and reveals an utter lack of what did happen. It might interest some to know...most the Wall Street Miscreants were by a majority supporters of the Democratic Party,, Including Madoff.

All this said, no party or individual caused this or contributed more than another, it was a Perfect Storm from all sides...and now we pay..."will that be cash or credit?" of course once again its Credit..3.2 Trillion with interest and counting...

Now Obama is talking Bi-partisian, however Mr. Emanuel is refusing admitance to the meetings on the subject..and Mr. Obama isn;t intersted in what anyone says if it doesn't involve Pork Barrels..as is evidenced by the recent budget..despite Candidate Obama's ABSOLUTE PROMISE to go Line By Line removing pork in his FIRST Years BUDGET, it would seem he couldn't find his pen or his courage.

Nothing new here.....just business as usual in Washington.

A Bailout Plan For Everyone

2009-02-22T20:20:00.000-08:00

The stock market has crashed, the minute any profit in a stock occurs, investors jump out taking the short term profit. The result stocks cannot make gains before profit taking beats them back. .

The recovery questions are...

How do you get the Trillions of dollars on the sidelines back into the market and kept in the market?
How do you make investors feel comfortable enough to invest again?
How can the Fed institute a plan where mom and pop investors who have seen their pensions demolished can regain some losses?
How do you make a deal where much of the Bailout Money might not need to be spent but Stocks will climb and not be dumped at the slightest hint of more bad news, thus stabilizing the market?
How in the end does the Fed make more money in tax revenue than they ever would otherwise and avoid larger deficits?

The Federal Government could create a fairly simple program where...

Investors could buy up to $20,000 of common stock(s) with the understanding if they keep the stock(s) for 3 years before selling, any loss would be offset with a dollar for dollar Fed Tax Credit funded by the Bailout Money. If they sell for a profit after 3 years they would get a 50% break on the Capital Gains Tax. Keep the stock for 5 years and save 75% on Capital gains. Similar tax breaks could be set aside for Pension Plans funded with stocks.

A plan as simple as this would give investors much needed confidence in getting back into the market and would help insulate them from losses. It would also help many small investors REGAIN some of their losses to their pension plans as the stocks recover.

It might very well keep the Fed from having to spend all of the money set aside as Bailout Money and would give publicly traded stocks a much needed boost in value, thus creating liquidity.

The break on long term capital gains is essential and would encourage the purchase of good viable stocks and would serve as an additional incentive to keep the stock in the investor's portfolio thus stabilizing the stock's value. After all waiting the three years is certainly worth it if you save half the capital gains tax.

In the end, the Federal Government could very well end up collecting tax revenue they otherwise would have never seen, more or less its "found money" for the Fed.

Most importantly the small investor might get some losses erased, the Tax Payer spends less on the Bailout and the stock market gets an instant shot of cash and targeted at the best companies.

Everyone gets a Stimulus....

Just my thoughts.....

Christie's Customers Get a Kick in The Pants

2008-11-30T21:40:00.000-08:00

"Sales drop by half in Christie's Asian art sale in HK " Reuters Headline Sun Nov 30, 2008 10:44am EST

This is not a quote ANY auctioneer want to read following an auction in a sliding world market..is the Asian art market heading to a Buyer's market?

"Bidding was lackluster with many collectors and dealers not drawn to valuations seen as overpriced given the current market conditions. Only 56 percent of 32 lots of Asian Contemporary art sold, while 46 percent of Chinese 20th Century artwork was sold."

During the last few years the Chinese art market from antiques to modern have enjoyed nearly the meteoric rise that powered the Japanese and Korean markets in the last 20 years. THis rise in the previous two examples was followed by an equally un meteoric ensuing drop.

It would seem perhaps Chinese Art might be on its own brink of market adjustment. Tremors have been evident for nearly a year, this recent auction and others in the last few months indicate that perhaps the party , if not over, is heading for a nap time.

Inventorys have been paid for or bought with borrowed money at top prices and the market has not absorbed them all from dealers. Couple this with a growing supply flushed out by published high prices will also create more downward pressure on values. We might be heading to a buyer's market.

Some areas still show strength as all markets do when sliding. A case in point are the consignments by Oliver Stone to Christies Asia sale, while the rest of the sale pretty much "tanked out" his things did fine. Have a look "Oliver Stone’s Chinese Art Fetches Top Price at Hong Kong Sale " Bloomberg article.

The market will need close watching.

Auction and Art Market Feeling Wall Streets Pain

2008-11-23T06:49:00.001-08:00

During the last few months: consignors and fine art auction houses large and small are feeling the repercussions of the credit collapse. While prices are still good, heady expectations are being met with stronger and growing resistance. Additionally highly valued lots are being removed at the last minute by nervous consignors who cannot cope with the thought of not getting top prices. Consequently these overzealous expectations translate into unmeetable reserves (i.e. minimums below which the item cannot be sold) which are too high and give the impression of a weakening market being worse than it is.

IN a time when investment portfolios are being demolished so the notion adding to the pain by loosing money on the Picasso or other fine objects as well is unthinkable! Guess what? Nothing is immune to the market. Especially something as irrelevant to most of the world as art, yes I said irrelevant and I am in the business and have been for 30 years.

Not to worry though! This is a cyclical situation that all the auction firms go through every ten or fifteen years. Large auctions houses i.e. Sotheby's and Christies who each sell 6 billion dollars a year each in fine art as well as much smaller regional firms like as Skinners Boston get a reality check from the REAL economy and sets them back on their well polished heels. They get a bit big for their britches, they try to become art bankers, making guarantees, paying huge advances to estates and all this other crazy stuff. They have done it before and it is always their "Waterloo".

Sotheby's in particular has a history of nearing the financial abyss, not too many years ago to avoid liquidation they were forced to sell their headquarters in New York City and then to rent it back. This was back in the days when the Chairman Mr. Taubman and the firms President D.D. Brooks were convicted of price fixing and put in jail or house arrest after a Federal probe.

Recently Sotheby's released less than positive sales results as did Christies.

Not long ago, "too much" was something you never heard in in regards to certain categories of fine art. Recently the silly notion that Art IS a good investment has been back in vogue. Consequently coupling the investment angle with what some think is a way to buy social acceptance, the nouveau riche and others bought in and made an overheated market of it. Well, they had better grab their ankles and shut their eyes..their portfolios are shrinking and their art collection is likely getting a bit soft in value as well. Reality is that ART is a Mediocre Investment..always has been.

I am not saying the sky is falling, but if you've bought at the top of the current market, you now own a very long term investment I think. Buying great art has ALWAYS been a game for the wealthy..not merely the rich.

Interestingly these financial woes will have several effects for those of us who works as dealers, many of them positive.

First dealers who have overpaid by using credit lines to build inventories will be gone in the coming months or year. This is fine with me as these types of dealers are not good for business.
Consignments to auction houses from estates will have much more realistic expectations and will be reflected in the estimates and reserves resulting in a lot fewer "buy-ins" and more honest expectations.
The auction houses who paid advances will take a reality check and move back from this practice.
Investors who buy art solely as investments will also be gone.

Art does go up in value in time, however believe it or not art and antiques in general isn't a great investment. The lesson is collect what you love, collect what makes that side of your life better and you'll fined the "dividends" are the pleasure they give you.
In time it will work it's way out prices will shake themselves out, markets Always find their natural levels. This includes the art market as well.

The Auto Bailout, Beggers in Private Jets

2008-11-19T21:32:00.000-08:00

This week as the stock market continued it's apparent never ending spiral downward some new faces were added to the growing line of entitled American CEO's seeking a handout.

In the 1930's Hobo's would mark the gates and trees near houses where a "travelling man" could get a free or "will work for a meal" and perhaps a bed off the ground for the night. It would appear a similar system is at work now in Washington, perhaps a check of the columns around the Capital might offer an explanation for this new sport in D.C.. It also may be the ineffectual Mr. Reid or the hapless Mrs. Pelosi's office door has some kind of coded markings which might explain this phenomenon. It may well be that Mr. Paulson has an invisible signs on his back that says "Ask me about my bailout system".

It most likely is just a good old fashioned "pile on" for free bee's, after all corporations are never shy about taking unearned money. This seems especially true when they only need to humiliate themselves for a few days in Washington with some mealy mouthed grovelling. When money is involved and the only objective is money, not admiration and respect.

Today, working Americans sit and watch day by day as their pensions evaporate, neighbors default on mortgages they should have never gotten while wondering if the pink slip will be on their desk before or after Christmas. Then enter the heads of once iconic American businesses suddenly turned pandering beggars, does it get any more cynical? They are for all intent and purposes socialists dressed in $4,000 suits and arriving in Washington tin cups in hand aboard private jets. All claiming to be willing to do things differently, all wanting "not a hand out, but a hand", complete with the promise of "we think we will be able to pay you back". As my late father used to say.."are you kidding me, knock it off don't be ridiculous."

Over 25 years ago Lee Iacocca borrowed the now famous billion dollars from Washington i.e. you and me. He went to D.C. and looked everyone in the eye, while taking no salary, and said I will pay you back every dime and this is how. He then unveiled the savior of Chrysler the "K" car.

Chairman Iaccoca:

Had a plan,

He had a product and

He was a straight shooter and we knew it

We all trusted him

At the time most Americans felt good about the Chrysler Loan and to his word, Iacocca paid it all back with interest in a year or two as agreed. I saw NO one in Washington this week asking for a "loan" who had that type of blunt integrity.

What we had this week were representatives of three huge companies so lacking in honesty, integrity and straight answers it was hard to watch. They deserve nothing, they need to prove themselves and that is going to be a tough sell. The Chairman Rick Wagoner of GM has done a rotten job and should have been cut loose 6 years ago and pretty much ditto for the other two auto maker heads.

Making cars used to be for visionaries, forward thinking "smart guys". These guys are not of that breed, these are corporate "Next Quarter Results Only" business types. Their utter lack of vision and integrity coupled with selfish unions have created the mess. Which is why the UAW is a laughing stock in Washington and no one listens to them anymore.

To survive all three automakers need a well developed game plan including a structured Chapter 11, wipe out most of the current terms of the absurd union agreements, eliminates surplus manufacturing capacity, streamlines production and material and mandates they NOT manufacture any vehicle which does not get at least 22 MPG. Suburbans and Hummers ARE not viable and these streamlined companies should not be using LOAN money to make them. Maybe hire away some Toyota and Honda engineers..?

Ohh..and get rid of the Jets, coach is fine on short trips for such a feckless group.

Advice from an auctioneer

2008-11-17T23:49:00.000-08:00

A few thoughts....before you call an auctioneer.....try to take it with some sense of humor.

An Open Letter From An Estate Auctioneer To Consignors {ALL Consignors}

If you think an item is worth more than we do, you’re probably wrong.
If you think it is worth less than we do, bless you, but you’re probably wrong.
If you want reserves you will pay me 10% for what it doesn’t sell for.
The LAST thing you should ask me is what my Commission rate is.
If three experienced auctioneers give you the same estimate and a fourth is much higher..he is lying to you.
If it brings less than I estimated, I was wrong, get over it.
If it brings more, I was wrong, take the check and be happy about it.
DON’T call me the day after the auction asking for a check.
You get paid in 30 days..as long as we’ve been paid.
Some of your things will probably sell for “Bargain Prices”, so get over it now.
Some of your things will bring more than they would on another day.
Some of your things will bring less than they would on another day.
If the Bidder doesn’t pay his bill I do not owe you the money anyway. You simply get the item back.
You cannot stop the sale of an item during the auction. I’ll just sell it to the most recent bid.
Do not try to micromanage the preparation of the auction. I’ll call you if I need anything from you. Otherwise leave me alone i.e GO AWAY!
No you cannot bid on your own stuff….neither can your mother, sister, nanny, unless they write a check to pay for it.
If it’s under a table in a Box Lot…it deserves to be there, so don’t ask me why.
Its costs me $30 to sell anything, please don’t ask me to sell items worth $10.
Reserves are for cowards. So lets just have a little faith in the system.
The Roadshow is NOT always right.
I know which items should be illustrated for advertising the auction , so please don’t tell me..
If you “Know Someone “ who once told you an item was worth a “FORTUNE” I don’t want to hear about it. Every consignor knows someone like this..and they are usually if not always wrong.
Very few things are rare. Even if it did belong to your Great Grandmother.
Kitchen Glasses are worthless. So don’t ask me to take them to sell.
Just because you’ve never seen another one doesn’t mean its rare. You just haven't seen it.
Your Brother –In-Law’s opinion is something I don’t need to know.
What something was worth on the “Old Appraisal” from 1980 means nothing..No I don’t want to see it.
Do not drag out old Antiques Magazine ads to prove something to me about your item.
The odds are if your Great Great Grandad bought it in Europe while on “The Grand Tour” he probably got taken. If it is a painting he did get taken. European dealers skinned Rich Americans to the bone by the thousands. If the bought anything really good...it was an accident.
If you bought it in New York…you paid full retail, no matter how "Good" the deal was.
New Oriental Rugs, {less than 40 years old}are worth $1.50 to $5.50 per square foot at auction.
On-site auctions bring more money than ANY other venue…including New York and London. So if you have a big yard and good stuff..please let us put up a tent there.
A Mediocre Specialist dealers know more than Non Dealer Specialist Collectors…
Anything restored is worth less…often much much less.
I’ll decide what goes in a box lot. So please leave it alone.
If you plan on attending your own auction..{I’d prefer it if you just went to a movie and called me two days after the auction}
Don’t hog the best buyer’s seats with you and your family. Sit at least 10 rows back off to the side. 20 Rows back are even better.
Regarding your family, tell them not to moan and yell, cheer “Yippie” when things sell…SHUT UP AND RELAX. Or you will KILL your own stuff. OK?
Do not tell the other attendees you are the consignor! Trust me on this. {Bad Karma}
Do not bid on your own stuff…it is ILLEGAL!
You cannot stop the sale of an auction item during the sale for any reason.
Do not question me during the preview and monopolize my time, say hello and go away.
During the last 45 mins before the auction begins..PLEASE LEAVE ME ALONE I guarantee you I am busy.
Do not ask me where your Grandma’s Hummel is..ITS IN A BOX LOT!
Do not change your mind about selling anything and ask for it back. I don’t have to do it and probably won’t…it might get ugly.
Do not bring your dog! They are a distraction and in most cases it is Illegal if food is being served during the auction. I know this is sad to hear but, some people hate dogs.
No Micromanaging the preview or the proceedings ..you know nothing about what is going on. I know you’re SPECIAL….but you know nothing.
Do not ask my staff to do things for you…they are busy, they work for me.
Do not ask me or anyone else to put reserves on ANYTHING the day of the auction. The answer is no and NO you cannot have it back.
Do not bring any kids under 15, if you do..hang great big signs around your necks that say “WE”RE THE CONSIGNORS”.
Do not stand around your items discussing how wonderful they are while pretending to be potential buyers. If you do..hang a great big signs around your necks that say “WE”RE THE REALLY STUPID CONSIGNORS”.
If you bring Grandma or Grandpa..tell them to please not kibitz with the previewers.

Other Things You Should Know About Antiques

Pine is generally a Junk Wood!
11 plates are worth less per plate than 12, the same goes for sets of chairs and almost everything else..
Early painted pine can be good.
Water Color Paintings are not worth as much as Oil Paintings.
Chipped Glass is worth 10% of a perfect piece, oh the same goes for porcelain, don’t argue with me about it and learn to be more careful! Broken glass is worth nothing.
Most Prints are “Re-strikes” i.e. “COPIES”.
Copies are worth less always.
Cabriole is a furniture term…not an expensive car.
Eastern European Dinner Services made after 1915 are worth next to nothing. NO! It doesn’t matter how much your grandma liked it.
Most furniture made after 1920 is Junk.
Iron stoves, upright pianos, National Geographics, Exercise Bikes, and Kennedy Assassination newspapers, paper back books, walkers, dial phones, water beds, most glass and porcelain made after 1925, pressed Golden Oak, iron and wood school desks, should go to the dump!
Out of Office Presidential signatures are worth half or less of ones signed while in office.
Just because something is old….doesn’t mean it is worth much. Haven’t you ever been to the dump?
Just because your great-grandmother owned it doesn’t mean it is worth anything.
Most old radios are worth almost nothing.
Patina can be worth more than gold.
Old computers are worth nothing.
A Highboy is not a cocktail.
Antiques DO go down in value sometimes, so I do not care what you paid for it.
Antiques DO go up in value sometimes, I still don’t care what you paid for it.
Stains on prints are bad! NO one likes stains on things!
Damage is always bad. ALWAYS…
Restoration is nearly always bad.
Mahogany Furniture is not always good.
Your Parents and Grandparents probably didn’t have amazing taste or even good taste.
Plastic Anything is junk….other than the first Barbie Doll or PEZ dispensers.
Anything marked Made In Taiwan is junk! Trust me.
Anything SOLD as a collectable isn’t.
Anything marked Made in Mexico is junk! Trust me.
NEVER EVER buy coins sold on TV, unless you’re incredibly bored, rich and stupid.
QVC has never sold anything that should be put in an auction..including Jewelry.
Old Bibles are worth less than National Geographics.
Old records are worth nothing…..put them on a CD and enjoy them.
Lenox Made too much stuff. Most of it no good.
Silver Plate and Sheffield is NOT the same thing.
If you’re father was a Doctor and a collector, he probably over paid for everything. Get over it now. Doctors are in general the worst collectors.
Antique English furniture is worth less than Antique American Furniture 90% of the time. The American stuff isn’t better its just overpriced for what it is.
Kovels is not a bible to value, so please don’t make me look at it. Cut the listed prices by half or more and you’ll be about right.
Modern Tall Clocks have little value.
Wheat Pennys are not valuable.
All signed paintings are not valuable.
Upholstered furniture made after 1910 is un-sellable.
Rock Maple is worth more as fire wood.
Bidermeier is a style not a person.
Eastlake is the name of a furniture designer, he NEVER made ANY FURNITURE! NOT EVER!
Oak is not rare, it can be pretty but not rare.
Your chest didn’t come over on the Pinta, Mayflower or the Santa Maria, ok…so don’t argue with me.
If your Great Grand Father got it from a “Wonderful Dealer” who owed him money..he was taken.
Nothing ever made by The Franklin Mint does well at auction. {its junk}
If you bought something with a “Certificate of Authenticity” keep it.
If you bought it on EBAY, don’t tell me you inherited it.
The term 18th Century Means 1700 to 1799, 19th Century means 1800 to 1899…ok!
Governor Winthrop Desks are rarely antique.
Wing Nuts are a bad sign in furniture construction.
Low Soft….is not Chinese porcelain.
The word “Style” is a polite way of saying COPY!
The word “Restored” is a polite way of saying its worth less.
Rose Medallion is worth half of what it was worth 15 years ago.
Marblehead Pottery is worth triple of what it was worth 15 years ago, maybe more.
If Granddad refinished it…its worth a lot less now.
Collector Plates are worth nothing..OK..nothing.
Little Metal Factory Plaques inside drawers means its not Antique.
Lane Cedar Chests are not antiques!
Illardos are ugly. Luckily for you some folks like them.
Sworovski Crystal is junk.
Tiffany anything IS GOOD!
Cartier anything IS GOOD!
Old Chelsea Clocks are good.
Most Mink coats are worthless.
Dealers will usually pay more at auction than on house calls.
“Inlayed Crotch Veneer” is a woodworking term..not a lovemaking technique.
Victorian Chairs are usually worth $75 to $150…so get over it.
Dealers Know more than you. And No..it doesn't matter how many books you have on the subject.
Amonia removes Gilt.
Never lift anything by the top.
Old Life Magazines are worth almost nothing unless the Hoover Dam is on the cover. {it was the first issue}
If it has a handle, don't use it. It will probably break off.
Don’t Sand anything! Dirt and grunge are good..cherish it.
NEVER EVER cut the margins off an early print because you have a frame that “Almost fits”. Don't be a cheapskate.buy the right size frame.
I am sure your mother was nice, it doesn’t however mean she knew anything about antiques.
Elderly People Lie to their families about how valuable their Antiques are. {Almost always}. I don't know why they do...but they do 95% of the time.
The rejection letters from Sotheby’s and Christie’s are usually accurate.
The Chairman and President of Sotheby’s WERE convicted, the head of Christie’s got off on a plea bargain.
When in doubt leave it alone.
Do not try to clean your own oriental rugs.
Most Japanese Prints are worth $20 or less.
If you Brother-in law isn’t a dealer I don’t care what he says it is or is worth. The same goes for your Great Aunt and the rest of the family.
Antique upholstered Chairs and Sofas can and often are be very uncomfortable.
“Sooo..you think its ugly..but someone else will pay a lot for it anyway?” Hmmm That makes sense.
People never get that old chair re-canned that they bought at auction...which is why they aren't worth much.
If the chest is missing a drawer take off 50% to 80% of the value.
A cracked marble top is NOT minor damage.
On average Antiques appreciate at around 4 to 6% a year.
Its Illegal to sell used mattresses, not to mention the very idea is disgusting.
Nearly all taxidermy items are Illegal to sell at auction. If it came from Africa it is 100% Illegal.
Plywood backboards + 18th Chest = Worth 75% less. {or more}
High estimates push auction prices down and discourage bids.
Currier & Ives does not mean valuable.
Scrub Boards are worth $5.00 or less…
Good Silver always has a market.
Kirk, Gorham, Tiffany and Steiff made good silver.
Zitan is not a foreign country, it is very expensive Chinese wood.
Antique Banks should never be repainted.
Book Of The Month Club books are worth 2 to 10 cents each if you’re lucky.
Winslow Homer was an illustrator for Harpers magazine during the Civil War. {save them}
If someone you know uses the expression..”We just love THE antiques” they don’t know anything about them….its kind of like someone saying…”We’re going golphing”. You cannot "Go Golphing"...you "Play Golf". {I won't lament the loss of good speach right now, but it bugs me}
Scratches and dents are charming.
Do not clean your own paintings.
Do not use a vacuum cleaner with a beater bar to clean good rugs.
Sunlight is bad for any antique made of wood, cotton, wool, anything on paper or canvas.
Do not put anything near a radiator or forced hot air duct.
"Fantastic" is not furniture cleaner/polish.
Never drag furniture… LIFT IT BY THE BASE!!! NOT THE TOP!
Do not put the stamp collection in the attic or cellar.
Do no clean old coins, unless you’re planning on putting them in a parking meter.
Kennedy Half Dollars are worth 50 Cents. {Is that a suprise?}
Old Leica Cameras are valuable
Old Minoltas are not.
Sandpaper....is an enemy of antique furniture surfaces.
Most “Rolex Watches” are fakes.
IF you bought it in a shop across the street don’t bring it to me and ask if you “Over paid”. Grow up and act like a “Big Person”
The odds are the thing you own is not Museum Quality.
Rarity does not mean valuable.
Valuable does not mean rare.
If you tell me “Its just like the one on Road Show, but it’s different.” I am gonna laugh at you.
Begging does not make things worth more to me.
If you cannot PROVE that an item came from a famous person, don’t tell me about it.
Most people are not “Famous” enough to influence values. The world is full of famous people.
Most of the stuff {95%} from the Jackie “O” auction isn’t worth more because it belonged to her. {Yeah I know that makes you sad}
If it’s made of Mahogany and is American it was made after 1750.
The Pilgrims had ugly furniture. Yes it is valuable, but it is very ugly.
If you attend auctions and bid against the same dealers from whom you buy things.....do expect them to get even with you for impairing their incomes and don't expect to get a call from them the next time they something really good. You do this for amusement despite any convoluted idea you might have about creating a collection for prosperity....this is thier livelyhood!
Be smart..find a dealer you like and trust and have him/her bid for you, pay the 10% they charge for the service, build a relationship with good dealers..trust me on this, its the smart thing to do.
Martha Washington did not own a Sewing Stand or a Lolling Chair during her lifetime, I have no idea why they named them after her. {According to the director of The Mt. Vernon Curator}
Little story: Vincent Price {the actor} was a collector of "Old Master's Drawings" by the time he died he had a huge collection, a huge collection of fakes, his collections was bought mostly by Sothebys and is used as a learning tool for what not to buy with Sotheby customers.

Whatever Happened to Stores Selling Nice Things?

2004-12-29T22:41:00.000-08:00

This past Christmas I did the usual “last minute” shopping at a large urban mall in the Boston area. They have a Macys, Lord and Taylor, Brooks Brothers, Victoria Secrets and so on. After roaming and looking for an hour and a half I was struck by the realization that I had seen nothing I would consider tasteful or would qualify as a suitable gift for anyone I know and love.

For example, the colors of the women’s clothes were over all “Ghastly” and that’s putting it mildly. The primary colors that have been selected this year for American women were “Barbie Doll pink”, turquoise, red, gray and this rather unfortunate yellow. Many stores were offering third rate cashmere sweaters on sale for $30 or $60. The cashmere was of the worst quality you can buy, just junk. Not all cashmere is created equally, a good cashmere scarf should run at least $150 and a great one is around $300 to $500. {No I am not kidding} A good sweater should cost a bit more. It should be densely woven, very well dyed and have a nice “handle” {If you don’t know what “Handle” means go to Louis in Boston possibly one of the best clothing stores in the United States PERIOD they will show you some great stuff.} I picked on cashmere to make a point, other critical comments can be made for nearly every other category as well.

While shopping I did notice that the average shopper was equally badly dressed… men and women in sweat suits man, wearing sneakers and dragging along in the case of most women ugly handbags bearing a close resemblance to saddle bags with straps. This of course made me wonder why fat and elderly people wear sweat suits? Gym clothes are never in style for any place but a gym or while jogging. Oh, T-Shirts are not attractive on anyone, not ever.

Seeing and thinking about all this made me understand why the stores offer the stuff they do. Just look at the average shopper, they wouldn’t know something great if they fell over it. Americans have basically no taste in clothes. Consequently the collapse of taste within our country has been translated into the stores almost everywhere you look. The Men’s suits are badly cut, shoes look like glorified mountain boots, neckties constructed of cheap silk {if its silk at all} done in colors and patterns that make me cringe. Italy and England being the only countries in the world currently producing good looking ties and fabric for ties and scarves. A footnote: Mercifully for Brooks Brothers, the company was bought, a while back, by an Italian textile firm after 7 or 8 years of decline at the hands of Japanese owners who ruined that once good solid company.

What ever happened to store personnel saying “Sir/Madam perhaps you would be more comfortable in something else”? This is a polite way of saying “You look terrible in that for more reasons than I can elucidate”. A good clothing person will tell you your body does not belong in that alive or dead even if you do like it. No, you don't have to buy "Bespoken Clothes" to look good, but it helps!!

I won’t even get into Victoria’s Secrets or Abercromby & Fitch { A once great NY outfitter}, or any of those other Quasi-Erochic purveyors of badly made third rate Southeast Asian rags. I know this sounds harsh, but it’s true. Happily for these companies Americans don’t know the difference and think that these stores actually sell “Nice Things”. Well, they don’t, they just present them well. These firms also save a fortune because hiring skilled designers is no longer an issue.

In the end….I gave antique jewelry, a nice rare book, two 19th C. paintings, ski lift passes and attempted to erase from my mind the sad realization of my shopping experience. I also probably spent less than a workout on my Visa card from the aforementioned Mall.